February 9, 2016
Portland Price Trends
02-01-15 08-01-15 01-01-15 02-02-16 02-09-16
#1 SWW (bu) 6.72 5.67 5.25 5.32 5.17
White Club 9.22 6.42 6.40 6.57 6.42
DNS 14% 8.76 6.19 6.13 6.21 6.07
HRW 11.5% 6.84 5.60 5.55 5.60 5.40
#2 Corn (ton) 180.00 160.00 153.00 162.00 145.00
#2 Barley 170.00 159.00 145.00 145.00 158.00
Wheat...West coast wheat markets drifted lower in early-week trade, as
new contract lows in the futures complex translated to new marketing year
lows for cash markets. Aside from routine buying from traditional Pacific
Rim customers, overall demand remains slow. Basis levels are holding firm
but carries are now being posted for all classes of wheat. Exporters are
also pulling back on premiums for low-protein soft white and club wheat.
Shipments...Weekly export inspections showed an improved week of wheat
loadings off US ports, coming in at 14.6 mb to put year-to-date totals at
506 mb and 12% behind a year ago. Top shipper was hard red winter with 5
mb, followed by soft white with 4.1 mb that went mostly to Japan, Taiwan
Crop Report...As expected, USDA acknowledged the slowed pace of export
demand for US wheat and trimmed back the estimate 25 mb to 775 mb; which
would be the lowest level since 1970. Export estimates were lowered for
all wheats except for white wheat; reflected in larger carryouts. Stocks
for hard red winter would be the largest since 1999; hard red spring the
highest level since 1987. White wheat remains the only class showing year
to year declines in projected carryout.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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