December 16, 2014
Portland Price Trends
12-01-13 01-01-14 11-01-14 12-09-14 12-16-14
#1 SWW (bu) 7.40 7.03 6.97 7.04 7.27
White Club 7.80 7.63 9.92 9.54 9.77
HRS 14% 8.44 8.10 9.19 9.83 9.49
HRW 11.5% 8.11 7.62 7.50 7.47 7.69
#2 Corn (ton) 185.00 186.00 185.00 194.00 199.00
#2 Barley 165.00 155.00 150.00 165.00 170.00
Wheat..Even with defensive basis levels, a surging Chicago market moved
white wheat bids back near seasonal highs this morning, triggering modest
farmer selling. Bid structures continue to show soft white posting carry
of 3 cents per month while hard red winter and springs remain mostly flat.
Further erosion in the protein wheat basis levels, however, has red spring
75 cents under recent highs and hard red winter 30 cents off recent highs.
Shipments...Weekly export inspections showed overall wheat movement was
slightly better thatn the 4-week average pace at 14.2 mb last week. Total
shipments now stand at 470 mb and 32% behind a year ago. Hard red winter
and spring wheat both beat their 4-week averages, standing 45% behind and
31% ahead of respective totals posted at this time last year. White wheat
registed 1.5 mb on the week, standing 6% behind last year, while soft red
winter moved 1.6 mb and sets at 60% behind a year ago.
Wheat Basis...The three-month rally in Chicago futures has added $1.60
to the March contract and now stands at 6-month highs. Over the same time
period soft white wheat cash bids have gained 85 cents from the September
lows. As a result, white wheat basis has dropped 80 cents from a high of
185 over to 105 over on today's close. Spring wheat basis has also lost
80 cents from it's high, dropping another 25 cents today for a close at
315 over, and hard red winter basis settled 60 cents off the season high
at 115 over.
-Norm Ruhoff Contributing Analyst
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